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【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】越南將成為另一只亞洲小龍The other Asian tiger
	發(fā)起人：eging4　　回復(fù)數(shù)：2　　瀏覽數(shù)：6397　　最后更新：2023/4/11 15:19:44 by pate5

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2016/9/19 17:15:29

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eging4

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【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】越南將成為另一只亞洲小龍The other Asian tiger

近年來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩，而越南的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)卻十分亮眼。英國(guó)最新一期的英國(guó)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》雜志刊登文章《越南將成為另一只亞洲小虎》，文章認(rèn)為在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，勞動(dòng)力成本提高的情況下，越南經(jīng)濟(jì)可以因?yàn)樽约糊嫶蟮牧畠r(jià)勞動(dòng)力從中獲利。如果越南能夠保持目前的發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)，那么越南將成為繼亞洲四小龍之后有一個(gè)閃亮的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

Vietnam’s economyThe other Asian tigerVietnam’s success merits a closer lookAug 6th 2016 Which Asian country has roared ahead over the past quarter-century, with millions of its people escaping poverty? And which Asian economy, still mainly rural, will be the continent’s next dynamo? Most would probably respond “China” to the first question and “India” to the second. But these answers would overlook a country that, in any other part of the world, would stand out for its past success and future promise.在過(guò)去的二十五年里，哪個(gè)亞洲國(guó)家一路高歌猛進(jìn)，帶領(lǐng)數(shù)以百萬(wàn)計(jì)的人民擺脫貧困？哪個(gè)仍以農(nóng)村為主的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體將會(huì)成為這個(gè)大陸的下一部發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)？大多數(shù)人可能會(huì)對(duì)第一個(gè)問(wèn)題回答“中國(guó)”，而對(duì)第二個(gè)問(wèn)題回答“印度”。但這些答案可能忽略了一個(gè)國(guó)家，而在世界其他任何地區(qū)，這個(gè)國(guó)家都會(huì)因?yàn)槠溥^(guò)去的成功和未來(lái)的潛力脫穎而出。
Vietnam, with a population of more than 90m, has notched up the world’s second-fastest growth rate per person since 1990, behind only China. If it can maintain a 7% pace over the next decade, it will follow the same trajectory as erstwhile Asian tigers such as South Korea and Taiwan. Quite an achievement for a country that in the 1980s was emerging from decades of war and was as poor as Ethiopia.

越南人口超過(guò)9000萬(wàn)，自1990年以來(lái)，其人均經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率已躍居全球第二，僅次于中國(guó)。如果該國(guó)能在下一個(gè)十年里維持7%的增速，則將追隨韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣等昔日亞洲小龍類(lèi)似的發(fā)展軌跡。對(duì)于一個(gè)在上世紀(jì)80年代從數(shù)十年戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中崛起，且曾一度與埃塞俄比亞同樣貧窮的國(guó)家而言，這的確是了不起的成就。

Unlike either China or India, Vietnam lacks the advantages of being a continent-sized economy, so the lessons of its rise are more applicable to other developing countries, especially those nearby. It is also a useful counter to techno-pessimism. The spread of automation in factories has fuelled concerns that poor countries will no longer be able to get a lift from labour-intensive manufacturing. Vietnam shows that tried-and-tested models of development can still work.不同于中國(guó)和印度，越南缺少堪比大洲的國(guó)土面積優(yōu)勢(shì)，因而其崛起經(jīng)驗(yàn)更適用于其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家，尤其是其鄰國(guó)。其發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)也有力反駁了技術(shù)悲觀(guān)論調(diào)。工廠(chǎng)自動(dòng)化的推廣讓人們擔(dān)心，貧困國(guó)家將不能再依靠勞動(dòng)密集型生產(chǎn)模式帶動(dòng)發(fā)展。而越南的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，過(guò)往行之有效的發(fā)展模式依然奏效。

Most obviously, openness to the global economy pays off. Vietnam is lucky to be sitting on China’s doorstep as companies hunt for low-cost alternatives. But others in South-East Asia, equally well positioned, have done less. Vietnam dramatically simplified its trade rules in the 1990s. Trade now accounts for roughly 150% of GDP, more than any other country at its income level. The government barred officials from forcing foreigners to buy inputs domestically. Contrast that with local-content rules in Indonesia. Foreign firms have flocked to Vietnam and make about two-thirds of Vietnamese exports.

最顯著的是，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放能帶來(lái)益處。幸運(yùn)的是，越南毗鄰中國(guó)，而恰好企業(yè)正在尋求低成本替代選擇。而同樣具有優(yōu)勢(shì)位置的其他東南亞國(guó)家成績(jī)就沒(méi)有這么優(yōu)異了。上世紀(jì)90年代，越南大幅精簡(jiǎn)了其貿(mào)易規(guī)定?，F(xiàn)在，越南貿(mào)易額約是其GDP的150%，超過(guò)其他相同收入水平的國(guó)家。越南政府禁止官員強(qiáng)迫外國(guó)人購(gòu)買(mǎi)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)品，與印度尼西亞的本地規(guī)定形成對(duì)比。因此，外國(guó)公司蜂擁而至，促進(jìn)了越南三分之二的出口。

Allied to openness is flexibility. The government has encouraged competition among its 63 provinces. Ho Chi Minh City has forged ahead with industrial parks, Danang has gone high-tech and the north is scooping up manufacturers as they exit China. The result is a diversified economy able to withstand shocks, including a property bust in 2011.

靈活性與開(kāi)放型相結(jié)合。越南政府鼓勵(lì)其63個(gè)省市之間展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。胡志明市大力推進(jìn)工業(yè)園建設(shè)，峴港走高科技路線(xiàn)，而被捕地區(qū)正在吸引推出中國(guó)的生產(chǎn)商。因此，越南成為一個(gè)多元化經(jīng)濟(jì)體，能夠經(jīng)受波動(dòng)，包括2011年樓市崩盤(pán)。

At the same time Vietnam, like China, has been clear-minded about the direction it must take. Perhaps most important has been a focus on education. Vietnamese 15-year-olds do as well in maths and sciences as their German peers. Vietnam spends more on schools than most countries at a similar level of development, and focuses on the basics: boosting enrolment and training teachers. The investment is pivotal to making the most of trade opportunities. Factories may be more automated, but the machines still need operators. Workers must be literate, numerate and able to handle complex instructions. Vietnam is producing the right skills. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia lag behind, despite being wealthier.

同時(shí)，像中國(guó)一樣，越南一直很清楚自身需要向哪個(gè)方向發(fā)展。或許最重要的是注重教育。15歲的越南學(xué)生在數(shù)學(xué)和科學(xué)方面的成績(jī)與同齡的德國(guó)學(xué)生一樣出色。越南的教育開(kāi)支高于大多數(shù)同等發(fā)展水平國(guó)家，其重點(diǎn)在于增加招生以及培訓(xùn)教師等基本事項(xiàng)。教育投資對(duì)于抓住貿(mào)易機(jī)遇而言至關(guān)重要。工廠(chǎng)可以更加自動(dòng)化，但機(jī)器仍需要人工操作。工人們必須受過(guò)教育，能夠掌握復(fù) 雜的操作機(jī)程序。越南正在培養(yǎng)得力的技術(shù)人手。德國(guó)、印尼和馬拉西亞盡管更富裕，但在這方面都落后于越南。

一家越南工廠(chǎng)工作的女工

Now a middle-income country, Vietnam faces a steep ascent to the high-income ranks. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation trade pact meant to be a boost, may well be blocked by America’s inward turn. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are bloated. Competing provinces, long a benefit, are a liability when they duplicate infrastructure. Vietnam has struggled to build a domestic supply chain. Moving up in value will be hard when China’s grip on high-end output is tightening. The repressive, one-party system of government is brittle.

現(xiàn)在，作為一個(gè)中等收入國(guó)家，越南面對(duì)的是一條通往高收入國(guó)家行列的艱難上坡路。由12國(guó)達(dá)成、意在推動(dòng)貿(mào)易的《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》很可能因美國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展而受阻。國(guó)有企業(yè)臃腫不堪。各個(gè)省市相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看有利于發(fā)展，但在重復(fù)建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的情況下，這種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)就會(huì)成為累贅。越南一直苦于打造一條國(guó)內(nèi)供應(yīng)鏈。中國(guó)隊(duì)高端產(chǎn)品的掌控日益加緊，向產(chǎn)業(yè)價(jià)值鏈上端攀升將十分艱難。

But Vietnam’s past quarter-century means that it has a decent chance of prevailing. It is at last starting on SOE reform. It is negotiating trade deals in Asia and with Europe. And it is drafting plans to increase its domestic share of manufacturing without scaring off foreigners. Vietnam is a model for countries trying to get a foot on the development ladder. With luck, it will also become a model for those trying to climb up it.

但越南過(guò)去25年的發(fā)展讓它有了一個(gè)很好的獲勝機(jī)會(huì)。它終于開(kāi)始進(jìn)行國(guó)企改革，并正與亞歐國(guó)家洽談貿(mào)易協(xié)議。越南正在起草相關(guān)計(jì)劃，增加國(guó)內(nèi)制造業(yè)份額，同時(shí)確保不會(huì)使歪果仁望而卻步。對(duì)于想要他上發(fā)展階梯的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，越南是一個(gè)典范。如果幸運(yùn)的話(huà)，越南還將成為那些試圖在發(fā)展階梯上穩(wěn)步攀升的國(guó)家的榜樣。

2022/9/29 1:27:36

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nihaota

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2023/4/11 15:19:47

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