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| 【經(jīng)濟學人】越南將成為另一只亞洲小龍The other Asian tiger | |
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發(fā)起人：eging4 回復數(shù)：2 瀏覽數(shù)：6401 最后更新：2023/4/11 15:19:44 by pate5 |
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eging4 發(fā)表于 2016/9/19 17:15:29
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【經(jīng)濟學人】越南將成為另一只亞洲小龍The other Asian tiger 近年來，中國經(jīng)濟增速放緩，而越南的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)卻十分亮眼。英國最新一期的英國《經(jīng)濟學人》雜志刊登文章《越南將成為另一只亞洲小虎》，文章認為在中國經(jīng)濟放緩，勞動力成本提高的情況下，越南經(jīng)濟可以因為自己龐大的廉價勞動力從中獲利。如果越南能夠保持目前的發(fā)展狀態(tài)，那么越南將成為繼亞洲四小龍之后有一個閃亮的經(jīng)濟體。
Vietnam’s economyThe other Asian tigerVietnam’s success merits a closer lookAug 6th 2016 Which Asian country has roared ahead over the past quarter-century, with millions of its people escaping poverty? And which Asian economy, still mainly rural, will be the continent’s next dynamo? Most would probably respond “China” to the first question and “India” to the second. But these answers would overlook a country that, in any other part of the world, would stand out for its past success and future promise.在過去的二十五年里，哪個亞洲國家一路高歌猛進，帶領數(shù)以百萬計的人民擺脫貧困？哪個仍以農(nóng)村為主的亞洲經(jīng)濟體將會成為這個大陸的下一部發(fā)動機？大多數(shù)人可能會對第一個問題回答“中國”，而對第二個問題回答“印度”。但這些答案可能忽略了一個國家，而在世界其他任何地區(qū)，這個國家都會因為其過去的成功和未來的潛力脫穎而出。 Vietnam, with a population of more than 90m, has notched up the world’s second-fastest growth rate per person since 1990, behind only China. If it can maintain a 7% pace over the next decade, it will follow the same trajectory as erstwhile Asian tigers such as South Korea and Taiwan. Quite an achievement for a country that in the 1980s was emerging from decades of war and was as poor as Ethiopia. 越南人口超過9000萬，自1990年以來，其人均經(jīng)濟增長率已躍居全球第二，僅次于中國。如果該國能在下一個十年里維持7%的增速，則將追隨韓國和臺灣等昔日亞洲小龍類似的發(fā)展軌跡。對于一個在上世紀80年代從數(shù)十年戰(zhàn)爭中崛起，且曾一度與埃塞俄比亞同樣貧窮的國家而言，這的確是了不起的成就。 Unlike either China or India, Vietnam lacks the advantages of being a continent-sized economy, so the lessons of its rise are more applicable to other developing countries, especially those nearby. It is also a useful counter to techno-pessimism. The spread of automation in factories has fuelled concerns that poor countries will no longer be able to get a lift from labour-intensive manufacturing. Vietnam shows that tried-and-tested models of development can still work.不同于中國和印度，越南缺少堪比大洲的國土面積優(yōu)勢，因而其崛起經(jīng)驗更適用于其他發(fā)展中國家，尤其是其鄰國。其發(fā)展經(jīng)驗也有力反駁了技術(shù)悲觀論調(diào)。工廠自動化的推廣讓人們擔心，貧困國家將不能再依靠勞動密集型生產(chǎn)模式帶動發(fā)展。而越南的經(jīng)驗表明，過往行之有效的發(fā)展模式依然奏效。 Most obviously, openness to the global economy pays off. Vietnam is lucky to be sitting on China’s doorstep as companies hunt for low-cost alternatives. But others in South-East Asia, equally well positioned, have done less. Vietnam dramatically simplified its trade rules in the 1990s. Trade now accounts for roughly 150% of GDP, more than any other country at its income level. The government barred officials from forcing foreigners to buy inputs domestically. Contrast that with local-content rules in Indonesia. Foreign firms have flocked to Vietnam and make about two-thirds of Vietnamese exports. 最顯著的是，對全球經(jīng)濟開放能帶來益處。幸運的是，越南毗鄰中國，而恰好企業(yè)正在尋求低成本替代選擇。而同樣具有優(yōu)勢位置的其他東南亞國家成績就沒有這么優(yōu)異了。上世紀90年代，越南大幅精簡了其貿(mào)易規(guī)定?，F(xiàn)在，越南貿(mào)易額約是其GDP的150%，超過其他相同收入水平的國家。越南政府禁止官員強迫外國人購買國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品，與印度尼西亞的本地規(guī)定形成對比。因此，外國公司蜂擁而至，促進了越南三分之二的出口。 Allied to openness is flexibility. The government has encouraged competition among its 63 provinces. Ho Chi Minh City has forged ahead with industrial parks, Danang has gone high-tech and the north is scooping up manufacturers as they exit China. The result is a diversified economy able to withstand shocks, including a property bust in 2011. 靈活性與開放型相結(jié)合。越南政府鼓勵其63個省市之間展開競爭。胡志明市大力推進工業(yè)園建設，峴港走高科技路線，而被捕地區(qū)正在吸引推出中國的生產(chǎn)商。因此，越南成為一個多元化經(jīng)濟體，能夠經(jīng)受波動，包括2011年樓市崩盤。 At the same time Vietnam, like China, has been clear-minded about the direction it must take. Perhaps most important has been a focus on education. Vietnamese 15-year-olds do as well in maths and sciences as their German peers. Vietnam spends more on schools than most countries at a similar level of development, and focuses on the basics: boosting enrolment and training teachers. The investment is pivotal to making the most of trade opportunities. Factories may be more automated, but the machines still need operators. Workers must be literate, numerate and able to handle complex instructions. Vietnam is producing the right skills. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia lag behind, despite being wealthier. 同時，像中國一樣，越南一直很清楚自身需要向哪個方向發(fā)展?；蛟S最重要的是注重教育。15歲的越南學生在數(shù)學和科學方面的成績與同齡的德國學生一樣出色。越南的教育開支高于大多數(shù)同等發(fā)展水平國家，其重點在于增加招生以及培訓教師等基本事項。教育投資對于抓住貿(mào)易機遇而言至關(guān)重要。工廠可以更加自動化，但機器仍需要人工操作。工人們必須受過教育，能夠掌握復 雜的操作機程序。越南正在培養(yǎng)得力的技術(shù)人手。德國、印尼和馬拉西亞盡管更富裕，但在這方面都落后于越南。
一家越南工廠工作的女工 Now a middle-income country, Vietnam faces a steep ascent to the high-income ranks. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation trade pact meant to be a boost, may well be blocked by America’s inward turn. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are bloated. Competing provinces, long a benefit, are a liability when they duplicate infrastructure. Vietnam has struggled to build a domestic supply chain. Moving up in value will be hard when China’s grip on high-end output is tightening. The repressive, one-party system of government is brittle. 現(xiàn)在，作為一個中等收入國家，越南面對的是一條通往高收入國家行列的艱難上坡路。由12國達成、意在推動貿(mào)易的《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》很可能因美國轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)發(fā)展而受阻。國有企業(yè)臃腫不堪。各個省市相互競爭，長期來看有利于發(fā)展，但在重復建設基礎設施的情況下，這種競爭就會成為累贅。越南一直苦于打造一條國內(nèi)供應鏈。中國隊高端產(chǎn)品的掌控日益加緊，向產(chǎn)業(yè)價值鏈上端攀升將十分艱難。 But Vietnam’s past quarter-century means that it has a decent chance of prevailing. It is at last starting on SOE reform. It is negotiating trade deals in Asia and with Europe. And it is drafting plans to increase its domestic share of manufacturing without scaring off foreigners. Vietnam is a model for countries trying to get a foot on the development ladder. With luck, it will also become a model for those trying to climb up it. 但越南過去25年的發(fā)展讓它有了一個很好的獲勝機會。它終于開始進行國企改革，并正與亞歐國家洽談貿(mào)易協(xié)議。越南正在起草相關(guān)計劃，增加國內(nèi)制造業(yè)份額，同時確保不會使歪果仁望而卻步。對于想要他上發(fā)展階梯的國家來說，越南是一個典范。如果幸運的話，越南還將成為那些試圖在發(fā)展階梯上穩(wěn)步攀升的國家的榜樣。 |
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nihaota 發(fā)表于 2022/9/29 1:27:36
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pate5 發(fā)表于 2023/4/11 15:19:47
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