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全球監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)警告中國(guó)銀行危機(jī)
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2016/9/19 14:26:43

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全球監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)警告中國(guó)銀行危機(jī)

A key gauge of stress in the banking sector is now more than three times above the danger level, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) says in its latest quarterly review.

國(guó)際清算銀行（BIS）在其最新季度評(píng)論中指出，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)壓力關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)目前已經(jīng)超過危險(xiǎn)水平三倍以上。

China’s credit-to-GDP gap hit 30.1 in the first quarter of 2016, it said.

該銀行表示，2016年第一季度，中國(guó)信貸-GDP差額達(dá)到了30.1。

The BIS considers a credit-to-GDP gap of 10 to be a sign of potential danger.

而國(guó)際清算銀行將信貸-GDP差額達(dá)到10作為一個(gè)潛在危險(xiǎn)的標(biāo)志。

A year ago the BIS quarterly review put the figure for China at 25.4.

一年之前，BIS季度評(píng)論發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)的這一指標(biāo)達(dá)到了25.4。

The BIS calculates the gap by looking at borrowing in relation to the size of the economy, and comparing that with the long-term trend of that ratio.

要想計(jì)算這一差額數(shù)據(jù)，BIS首先要查找借貸和經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的關(guān)系，并且將這一數(shù)據(jù)和長(zhǎng)期比率走勢(shì)進(jìn)行比較。

When the two start to diverge, the BIS argues, a banking crisis could be on the way.

BIS認(rèn)為，當(dāng)兩者開始出現(xiàn)分歧的時(shí)候，銀行危機(jī)可能就要發(fā)生了。

The BIS has a central position in global finance as it provides banking services to central banks and monitors the international flow of money and credit.

國(guó)際清算銀行處于全球金融的中心地位，因?yàn)樵撱y行為各國(guó)央行提供銀行服務(wù)，并且監(jiān)控貨幣和信貸的國(guó)際流動(dòng)。

The health of China’s banking sector has long been a source of concern for financial markets.

中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的健康長(zhǎng)久以來都是金融市場(chǎng)所擔(dān)憂的問題。

Since the financial crisis of 2007-2008 there has been a boom in credit as the Chinese government has attempted to spur flagging growth.

自從2007-2008年的金融危機(jī)以來，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)增加了大量信貸，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)政府試圖以此來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

But some of that lending has not been productive and the IMF estimates that loans worth $1.3 trillion are at risk of default.

但是部分貸款并沒有帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)的繁榮，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織估計(jì)1.3萬億美元的貸款存在違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

However, as the Chinese banking system is largely owned or controlled by the government, analysts say it would bail out the banking sector if necessary.

然而，由于中國(guó)銀行系統(tǒng)大部分都是由政府擁有或控制，因此分析人士認(rèn)為，如果有必要的話中國(guó)政府將會(huì)出手幫助銀行業(yè)渡過難關(guān)。

Brexit recovery

英國(guó)退歐影響恢復(fù)。

In its latest quarterly review, the BIS also said the markets has shown resilience following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.

BIS在其最近季度評(píng)論中指出，英國(guó)投票退出歐盟之后，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)有了一些起色。

"The speed of the recovery took many by surprise, given the political and economic uncertainty that the vote had triggered," said Claudio Borio, head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS.

國(guó)際清算銀行貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)部門主管克勞迪奧·博里奧表示：“鑒于英國(guó)脫歐造成了如此巨大的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性，經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的速度讓許多人都大吃一驚?！?/font>

But he warned that, despite recent gains, global financial markets are in a sensitive state.

但是他也警告說，盡管國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)近期有了一些起色，但是仍然處于敏感狀態(tài)。

"There has been a distinctly mixed feel to the recent rally - more stick than carrot, more push than pull, more frustration than joy.

“對(duì)于最近市場(chǎng)的反彈，有一種獨(dú)特的復(fù)雜感覺--更像大棒而不是胡蘿卜，更多的推力而不是拉力，更多的沮喪而不是歡樂。”

"This explains the nagging question of whether market prices fully reflect the risks ahead. Doubts about valuations seem to have taken hold in recent days. Only time will tell," Mr Borio said.

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